Effects of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate and Exchange Rate

On Stock Market Returns in Kenya

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Debate on the stochastic behaviour of stock market returns, macroeconomic variables and their cointegrating residuals remains unsettled. This study examines the stochastic properties of the macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and their cointegrating residuals using an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model. It also investigates Granger causality between the macroeconomic variables and stock market returns. The study uses monthly data from 1st January 1993 to 31st December 2015 drawn from the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Central Bank of Kenya, and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The results indicate that the 3-month Treasury Bills rate, lending rate, month-onmonth inflation rate, year-on-year inflation rate, exchange rate and stock market returns are fractionally integrated variables.


Donald Otieno


Donald Otieno is a researcher and financial economics expert. Dr. Otieno received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and Statistics from Egerton University, Kenya; a Masters degree in Economics and Policy Management from the University of Nairobi, and a Ph.D degree in Financial Economics and Econometrics from the University of Nairobi, Kenya.

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Publishing House:

LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing


Exchange Rate, Inflation rate, Interest rate, Stock Market Returns, ARFIMA models

Product category:

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Banks & Banking